Floresta e Ambiente
https://floram.org/article/doi/10.1590/2179-8087.044118
Floresta e Ambiente
Original Article Energy and Conservation of Nature

Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia

Valderli Jorge Piontekowski; Fabiana Piontekowski Ribeiro; Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi; Ilvan Medeiros Lustosa Junior; Angela Pereira Bussinguer; Alcides Gatto

Downloads: 0
Views: 1122

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.

Keywords

land use change, fragmentation, disorderly occupation

References

Almeida CM, Gleriani JM, Castejon EF, Soares-Flho BS. Using neural networks and cellular automata for modeling intraurban land-use dynamics. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 2008; 22(9): 943-963. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13658810701731168.

Alvares CA, Stape JL, Sentelhas PC, Gonçalves JLM, Sparovek G. Köppen’s climate classification map for Brazil. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 2013; 22(6): 711-728. http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0507.

Azevedo-Ramos C, Moutinho P. No man’s land in the Brazilian Amazon: could undesignated public forests slow Amazon deforestation? Land Use Policy 2018; 73: 125-127. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.01.005.

Barni PE, Fearnside PM, Graça PMLA. Simulating deforestation and carbon loss in Amazonia: impacts in Brazil’s Roraima State from reconstructing Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho). Environmental Management 2015; 55(2): 259-278. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00267-014-0408-6. PMid:25472831.

Brawn JD. Implications of agricultural development for tropical biodiversity. Journal of Tropical Conservation Science 2017; 10: 1-4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1940082917720668.

Calegari L, Martins SV, Gleriani JM, Silva E, Busato LC. Análise da dinâmica de fragmentos florestais no município de Carandaí, Mg, para fins de restauração florestal. Revista Árvore 2010; 34(5): 871-880. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0100-67622010000500012.

Coe MT, Brando PM, Deegan LA, Macedo MN, Neill C, Silvério DV. The Forests of the Amazon and Cerrado moderate regional climate and are the key to the future. Tropical Conservation Science 2017; 10: 1-6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1940082917720671.

Collinge SK. Ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation: implications for landscape architecture and planning. Landscape and Urban Planning 1996; 36(1): 59-77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2046(96)00341-6.

Elz I, Tansey K, Page SE, Trivedi M. Modelling deforestation and land cover transitions of tropical peatlands in sumatra, indonesia using remote sensed land cover data sets. Land (Basel) 2015; 4(3): 670-687. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land4030670.

Fearnside PM, Graça PMLA, Keizer EWH, Maldonado FD, Barbosa RI, Nogueira EM. Modelagem de desmatamento e emissões de gases de efeito estufa na região sob influência da rodovia Manaus-porto velho (br-319). Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 2009; 24(2): 208-233. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862009000200009.

Fonseca A, Souza C Jr, Veríssimo A. Deforestation report for the Brazilian Amazon [online]. SAD. Imazon; 2016 [cited 2016 June 5]. Available from: https://imazon.org.br/publicacoes/boletim-do-desmatamento-da-amazonia-legal-setembro-de-2016-sad/

Foody GM. Assessing the accuracy of land cover change with imperfect ground reference data. Remote Sensing of Environment 2010; 114(10): 2271-2285. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.05.003.

Gómez C, White JC, Wulder MA. Characterizing the state and processes of change in a dynamic forest environment using hierarchical spatio-temporal segmentation. Remote Sensing of Environment 2011; 115(7): 1665-1679. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.02.025.

Haddad NM, Brudvig LA, Clobert J, Davies KF, Gonzalez A, Holt RD et al. Habitat fragmentation and its lasting impact on Earth’s ecosystems. Science Advances 2015; 1(2): e1500052. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500052. PMid:26601154.

Hagen A. Fuzzy set approach to assessing similarity of categorical maps. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 2003; 17(3): 235-249. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13658810210157822.

Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica – IBGE. Manual técnico da vegetação brasileira. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE; 2012. (Série Manuais Técnicos em Geociências, vol. 1).

Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica – IBGE. Base e referências: base cartográficas [online]. 2015 [cited 2018 Jan 8]. Available from: https://mapas.ibge.gov.br/bases-e-referenciais/bases-cartograficas/malhas-digitais.html

Le Tourneau F-M, Bursztyn M. Assentamentos rurais na Amazônia: contradições entre a política agrária e a política ambiental. Ambiente & Sociedade 2010; 13(1): 111-130. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1414-753X2010000100008.

Magnago LFS, Edwards DP, Edwards FA, Magrach A, Martins SV, Laurance WF. Functional attributes change but functional richness is unchanged after fragmentation of Brazilian Atlantic forests. Journal of Ecology 2014; 102(2): 475-485. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12206.

Malek Z, Boerboom L, Glade T. Future forest cover change scenarios with implications for landslide risk: an example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania. Environmental Management 2015; 56(5): 1228-1243. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00267-015-0577-y. PMid:26122632.

Maués MM, Oliveira PEAM. Consequências da Fragmentação do Habitat na Ecologia Reprodutiva de Espécies Arbóreas em Florestas Tropicais, com Ênfase na Amazônia. Oecologia Australis 2010; 14(1): 238-250. http://dx.doi.org/10.4257/oeco.2010.1401.14.

Moutinho P, Guerra R, Azevedo-Ramos C. Achieving zero deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: what is missing? Elementa. Science of the Anthropocene 2016; 4: 1-11. http://dx.doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000125.

Piontekowski VJ, Matricardi EAT, Pedlowski MA, Fernandes LC. Avaliação do Desmatamento no Estado de Rondônia entre 2001 e 2011. Floresta e Ambiente 2014; 21(3): 297-306. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/2179-8087.068213.

Rocha R, Ovaskainen O, López-Baucells A, Farneda F, Sampaio EM, Bobrowiec PED et al. Secondary forest regeneration benefits old-growth specialist bats in a fragmented tropical landscape. Scientific Reports 2018; 8(1): 3819. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-21999-2. PMid:29491428.

Santos BA, Arroyo-Rodrıguez V, Moreno CE, Tabarelli M. Edge-related loss of tree phylogenetic diversity in the severely fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest. PLoS One 2010; 5(e12625): 1-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0012625. PMid:20838613.

Schlindwein JA, Marcolan AL, Fioreli-Perira EC, Pequeno PLL, Militão JSTL. Solos de Rondônia: usos e perspectivas. Revista Brasileira de Ciências da Amazônia 2012; 1(1): 1-19.

Silva MSF, Souza RM. Padrões espaciais de fragmentação florestal na flona do Ibura – Sergipe. Mercator 2014; 13(3): 121-137. http://doi.org/10.4215/RM2014.1303.0009.

Soares-Filho BS, Rajao R. Modelling of deforestation scenarios for the northwest of Mato Grosso. Policy in Focus 2014; 1(29): 37-39.

Soares-Filho BS, Rodrigues HO, Costa WLS. Modelagem de dinâmica ambiental com dinamica: guia prático do dinamica ego. Belo Horizonte: Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto/UFMG; 2009.

Zarin DJ, Harris NL, Baccini A, Aksenov D, Hansen MC, Azevedo-Ramos CA et al. Can carbon emissions from tropical deforestation drop by 50% in five years? Global Change Biology 2015; 22(4): 1336-1347. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13153. PMid:26616240.
 

5d7f9f3b0e88252969bbec00 floram Articles
Links & Downloads

FLORAM

Share this page
Page Sections