Floresta e Ambiente
https://floram.org/article/doi/10.1590/2179-8087.008518
Floresta e Ambiente
Original Article Conservation of Nature

Climate Change Influencing the Potential Distribution of a Brazilian Savanna Indicator Species

Cristiano Rodrigues Reis; Marcelo Leandro Bueno; Lucas Fernandes Rocha; Lidia Gabriella Santos; Eric Bastos Gorgens

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Abstract

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to model the potential effect of future climate change on the distribution of a tree species indicator of Cerrado. For the modeling, we used 488 occurrence points of the species and also bioclimatic variables corresponding to 2050 and 2070, for the more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. All generated models were classified as consistent, getting an area under curve higher than 0.90. The current modeling of Connarus suberosus showed that 88% of the area with a high probability of species occurrence is inside the Cerrado domain. Future projections suggest losses in the environmental suitability area around 40.8% and 44.8% in the optimistic scenario, 61.6% and 81.6% in the pessimistic scenario considering 2050 and 2070, respectively. Furthermore, we found a tendency of the C. suberosus to move in the Atlantic Forest direction. This modeling is an alert that the C. suberosus will suffer from future climate change.

Keywords

bioclimatic variable, Connarus suberosus, environmental suitability, Neotropical savanna, maximum entropy

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